UPDATED PANDEMIC MODEL SHOWS LESS IMPACT
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UPDATED PANDEMIC MODEL SHOWS LESS IMPACT
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Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential deathtoll on Wednesday.
What do you think the impact of coronavirus will be in the United States? Leave a comment.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve. The model predicted far fewer deaths if lockdown measures — measures such as those taken by the British and American governments — were undertaken.
After just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.
Ferguson explained, “I should admit, we’ve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What we’ve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction… something more, a little bit above of the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5.” He added, “the current values are still within the wide range of values which modeling groups [unintelligible] we should have been looking at previously.”
A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.
Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.
“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.
Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.
If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms. . . .
Amid widespread reporting on his new death rate estimates — including by White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx, who cited his 20,000 estimate during a press conference Thursday — Ferguson issued a statement on social media Thursday to “clear up confusion” about his revised estimates:
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
(Excerpt from The Daily Wire. Article by Amanda Presitgiacomo.)
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I come before our Lord right now. IT IS WRITTEN! I pray to cast out this stronghold of covid 19 in the name of Jesus! I rebuke the devil! BE GONE, DRY UP! FLEE IN THE NAME OF JESUS, THE NAME ABOVE ALLL NAMES says so!
Thank you Father you have heard this prayer! AMEN!
I come before our Lord right now. IT IS WRITTEN! I pray to cast out this stronghold of covid 19 in the name of Jesus! I rebuke the devil! BE GONE, DRY UP! FLEE IN THE NAME OF JESUS, THE NAME ABOVE ALLL NAMES says so!
Thank you Father you have heard this prayer! AMEN!
The first mistake seems to be believing “the early data in China”.
Father God,
I pray for You to reveal the truth about this CCP-virus (Chinese Communist Party).
I pray for exposure of anyone, particularly those who are advising President Trump, who are working against Your plans and purposes for the United States of America.
We stand on Your word in Isaiah 46:10 and proclaim it:
“My counsel shall stand, and I will accomplish all my purpose. “
Thank You for the anointing You have put on President Trump. May that anointing be used in a way to bring You glory.
Protect him, provide what he needs, strengthen him in his spirit, body and soul. Help him hear You clearly and receive Your guidance.
Show him the small stone that will bring the giant down quickly and completely as Kim Clement prophesied.
We thank You and praise You for Your unlimited power, mercy, and grace. Help Your people be in unity to advance Your Kingdom in the mighty name of Jesus.
Amen.
The devil prowls around like a roaring Lion. I am sure many have heard that a lion can paralyze his next meal with just a roar.
20 years ago I had come home and my house had been emptied, my small children taken and my bank accounts totally withdrawn. A few months after that I was let go from my job. I had been slapped with support payments, still had a mortgage and bills to pay., My parents had passed away, my brother was out of the country. It just seemed impossible that I was going to get through this mess. I was so distraught, scared, and overwhelmed. During that time the Lord showed me to live in the moment, meaning, only think about what you need to to right now and let Me handle the future which I was not in control. I began to understand that I was in control of my thoughts and I could choose to put aside worry, fear, revenge, and other negative emotions. When a negative thoughts would come my way, it was like a physical path that went off the “high road”. I could physically discern it and choose to stay on the path with God at my side.
This understanding did not come immediately. It was up and down for some time, but when the fear came in strong, I would press into God and not lean on my own understanding. I also realized I was in a Spiritual battle of incredible intensity. I prayed constantly.
As I walked through this calamity, I did not know where it was going, but I trusted God and His word. Their were casualties along the way, but the most important thing: I was able to keep and develop a loving relationship with my children, which I was so grateful. I lost my wife and all my money but God got me through every trial. It was truly a miracle how God opened doors for me and became my Jehovah Jireh (my provider).
20 years later, and God has added back all I lost 10 fold. He is faithful, even to a sinner like me. I was not perfect in my actions by no means, but we are justified by faith in Him.
So in this time of uncertainty, let’s press into God with the understanding that He cares for us personally. Let’s choose daily to live by faith and make personal choices and renew our minds and not listen to the voices that will lead down a path of fear. It’s a test but God, the creator of the universe will use this time to glorify Himself and do things for the good that we cannot even imagine. Faith can move mountains, I understand that concept now.
Dear Father, Pour out Your comfort and wisdom to us as we press into You. Give us each a picture or a word that will allow the concept of trusting You to be a personal experience that we can call up moment by moment when we are tested. Mature us where we know Your voice and can walk in your ways. May this time of uncertainty be a time You reveal Your love for us. May we grow in our understanding of how much You want intimacy with us. Teach us what it means to enter the “Kingdom of God” that Jesus talked about. Help us understand the power You give us through the Holy Spirit that we receive through faith as a believer. Teach us to move in that power as we seek Your Spiritual gifts that Paul mentions in Corinthians 12. Show us how to love our enemies an at the same time pray against the darkness that pushes Satans agenda. i feel that God wants us to reach out to those that don’t know Him, give an encouraging word or move in the gifts of the Spirit at a level of faith that each of us possess. And Lord, give us Your peace that passes all understanding and a rest that strengthens our souls.
I believe the impact will be minimal, unless you count the impact of of our Father’s agenda. That is looking like it’s going to be massive. Hallelujah! (Not that I’m not praying for those overwhelmed by the impact on their lives; the harsh impact is huge for them.)
Father, I pray that we would seek Your face, we would seek You, in the midst of scientific evidence. Knowing that You, Lord God have a cure for COVID-19., This morning as I woke up this song came to mind. soul, are you weary and troubled?
No light in the darkness you see?
There’s light for a look at the Savior,
And life more abundant and free!
Refrain:
Turn your eyes upon Jesus,
Look full in His wonderful face,
And the things of earth will grow strangely dim,
In the light of His glory and grace.
Through death into life everlasting
He passed, and we follow Him there;
O’er us sin no more hath dominion—
For more than conqu’rors we are!
His Word shall not fail you—He promised;
Believe Him, and all will be well:
Then go to a world that is dying,
His perfect salvation to tell!.
May we be a world that turns our eyes, to Jesus. Father, May Your kingdom come Your will be done here on earth as it is in heaven. Accomplish Your purposes. We love You Lord !