Birthrates Are Falling — What Does This Mean?
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Birthrates Are Falling — What Does This Mean?
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Are Americans having enough babies to keep the nation going? What does a falling birthrate mean for the future of the United States?
From Deseret News. Births to teenagers hit a new low in 2022, following a decades-old trend that began in 1991, despite brief increases in 2006 and 2007. And the birthrate for young women, ages 20-24, also reached a record low.
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But not all birth declines are being hailed as good news. Demographic experts say reports on fertility rates are not just an interesting look at numbers. Fertility is a roadmap to aspects of the future that have great bearing on most people’s lives in one way or another, though they may not recognize it. …
Births overall, in fact, are down — though by an insignificant less than 1%, according to 2022 provisional data that includes nearly all the birth certificates filed that year, according to a report just released by the National Center for Health Statistics within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“Fertility has been declining basically since the Great Recession,” Emily Harris, senior demographer at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, told the Deseret News. She said when economic times are hard, it’s “normal” for both births and immigration to decline. …
Ask why the fertility trend is down and experts say they have theories, not proof. But there are compelling ideas about why people are delaying or not having children.
“There are a ton of issues going on,” Harris said. “Things people are talking about as societal, institutional issues and problems, such as the inability to find housing, the inability to find affordable housing, the increasing cost of day care or even trying to find a day care. There are inflation concerns. Things are becoming more expensive.” …
One factor in drooping fertility, which is happening in most of the world, is clear, experts say. Many people are waiting longer to have their first child, which also limits the number of children they can have.
3.6 million-plus new Americans
In 2022, 3,661,220 births were recorded in the United States, according to the provisional data, which is unlikely to change significantly when finalized in a few months. The center said the report includes the 99.91% of births in 2022 that had been registered by Feb. 14, 2023. Data for American Samoa, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands were not yet available.
The general fertility rate was 56.1 births per 1,000 women of what’s considered prime childbearing ages, 15-44. That rate had fallen about 2% every year between 2014 and 2020, before climbing 1% in 2021 and then falling very slightly in 2022.
But the U.S. population is shrinking over time, demographers say: The total fertility replacement rate is 2.1 births per 1,000 women. The rate in 2022 was 1.665 births per 1,000 women, well below that replacement rate. According to the report, “The total fertility rate estimates the number of births that a hypothetical group of 1,000 women would have over their lifetimes, based on the age-specific birth rate in a given year.” …
Why falling fertility is bad news
If you want a stable population size — and experts say not having one portends economic and other challenges — you have to have babies or count on immigration to raise the numbers.
America’s total fertility has “generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007,” the report said.
Changes are coming — though not right away, experts told the Deseret News.
“You don’t feel the effects immediately,” said Harris, “but in 30 to 40 years, you start to feel age structure shifts that impact society and institutions and programs that were built on the assumption you will have the same age structure. A lot of our national policies are built on the assumption that we will have a lot of young people and fewer older people — a large workforce to support those who are older.”
Instead, America is beginning to see a shrinking workforce and a larger number of those retirement age and older. …
Over the longer term, workforce issues arise, from having enough workers to fill jobs to entrepreneurship, which increases with a robust young workforce. And it is typically through younger workers that funding is available so older people get some government support. …
How are you praying about this? Share this article to raise awareness of this issue.
(Excerpt from Deseret News. Photo Credit: Canva)
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Dear Lord thank you that you continue to reign on your throne! Please give us wisdom and courage. Amen.
It’s simple math my friends. Christians have a lower birth rate percentage than Muslims . We are not replacing ourselves through our selfishness of desiring this wonderful standard of living? We say we can’t afford big families while we live in more than adequate homes and have 2 cars and take a vacation and spend much on leisure,,etc. etc.
How many pulpits are saying have more babies ! No I don’t see this trend changing anytime soon as Christian families become a minority.
Our only hope will be evangelizing our nation to disrupt this skillful attack from our enemy Satan .
If we need outside resources for a younger population to take us into the future, I pray for more legal immigration. May it increase for people who truly wish to be here and obey our laws. I pray that immigrants who have come here trying to take short cuts and ignore the laws of our country will be dealt with accordingly. May they return to our country doing so in a legal way as all others. Lord please protect our land and watch over it, may the carelessness of our government not become the rule of the land. I pray in Jesus name. Amen
Birth control (family planning) and abortion are some of the biggest contributors to a declining birth rate.
Because the agenda is depopulation. They’ve been poisoning us over the years with our food, the water, just recently the shots, all of these things affect fertility. There are studies showing that.
How many are having miscarriages because they decided to listen to these so called officials and get a mRNA shot that was never tested, while they were pregnant? If you look into it many have lost children. Then look at the fact that how many children over the years were born with a disability. Depending on that disability they won’t be able to have children of their own. How many parents have autistic children that they will be caring for for the rest of their lives and they will never get to live a normal adult life? Why have the autism rates skyrocketed? They’ve been poisoning us.
Lord, I pray please protect us from the enemy. Protect us from those that want to cause us harm. The enemy has been hard at work for a long time now and has been slowly damaging fertility over time. Father please restore people’s health. Restore their ability to have healthy children, who will then be able to have children of their own. Only you can do this Father. Thank you. In Jesus’ name. Amen.
I agree with many of your points. However, many people with autism can have independent and productive lives. Elon Musk and Bill Gates, although I do not agree with his actions, are highly successful. Autism rates are increasing today. Fifty years ago, unless you had severe autism, you usually were not diagnosed as autistic. You were blamed as selfish and not friendly and therefore hated and rejected. However, I think that might have been better than now where you are put on special education and carry that label and low expectations for the rest of your life.
That’s why I said depending on the disability and that some parents would be taking care of them for the rest of their lives. I know not all who are autistic are that severe and that there’s a spectrum. I know some on the spectrum that are functioning adults. But there are more in this day and age than in the past. Autism rates weren’t as high as they are now.
Sorry for the offense. Maybe you are right but I and others like me would have been diagnosed with autism years ago. I, with the grace of God, made it through and just retired last year. I probably would not have had that chance if I was labeled and shunted off to special education.
I wasn’t offended. I just felt you got offended by my comment and it wasn’t meant to offend anyone. Just stating that some disabilities prevent people from having children and there are a lot more now than years ago. Whether it was diagnosed or not. There are more parents taking care of disabled children these days than in the past.