Analysis. Iranian suicide drones may force Israel’s hand on Ukraine. And that could spell trouble with Israel’s “neighbor” to the north: Russia.

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Earlier this year, I explored with IFA readers how Israeli leaders have walked a diplomatic tightrope after Russia’s brutal aggression in Ukraine. In addition to having concerns for the large Russian Jewish population there, Israel is keenly aware that its military forces are in close proximity to Russian troops in war-torn Syria. In fact, while he was still serving as Israel’s top diplomat, Yair Lapid (now prime minister) said his nation’s border with Syria “for all intents and purposes, is a border with Russia.”

Iranian agents, too, are active in Syria, so Israel has sought open channels with Moscow in hopes of maintaining open access to the skies there for counter-terrorism operations. As a result, even though it joins democratic partners in the West in denouncing the invasion in Ukraine and is providing humanitarian assistance, Jerusalem has been reluctant to impose major sanctions on Russia or to ship weapons to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has not been pleased. For example, last month he lashed out in an interview on French television, exclaiming: “Israel did not provide us with anything. Nothing. Zero! I am shocked. … I don’t understand why they can’t provide us with anti-aircraft means.”

But the times may be changing, particularly now that Russia appears to be receiving arms from Israel’s archnemesis. In recent days, Russian forces have deployed Shahed “suicide drones” against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities in a campaign likely intended to strike fear into the civilian populations there. Unlike remote-controlled unmanned predators that fire at enemies from a distance, these devices are preprogrammed for one-way missions to deliver their payloads and destroy targets much like a missile.

Iran denies that it is supplying such arms, but the U.S. and Ukraine are convinced otherwise. And the debate is boiling over in Israel as well. Nachman Shai, an Israeli Cabinet official, has tweeted: “This morning it was reported that Iran is transferring ballistic missiles to Russia. There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict. The time has come for Ukraine to receive military aid as well, just as the USA and NATO countries provide.”

That comment brought a seething rebuke from a top political ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and Israeli agents moved quickly to tamp down the flames by pointing out that Shai did not have authority to speak on behalf of the government in this matter. Defense Minister Benny Gantz confirmed that Israel’s policy would not change, stating: “We will not supply weapons.”

Still, the narrative may be changing for the Israelis. In followup comments with the Associated Press, Shai highlighted Israeli citizens’ familiarity with being in the crosshairs of rockets fired out of Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza. And another media outlet, Breaking Defense, suggests that Shai’s feelings “represent a growing sense in the Israeli public, which is beginning to see ties between attacks on Ukrainian civilians and Israel’s self-image.”

New twists are further complicating Israel’s position. While Russia and Iran were both in Syria ostensibly to buttress the once-endangered regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, they were also competing for influence. But just this week The New York Times reported that Russia is decreasing its boots-on-the-ground footprint and pulling back a key air-defense system. Given its ongoing aggression in Ukraine, Russia’s redeployment may not be surprising. But how is it being done, and what are the repercussions? On the one hand, this move could mitigate an obstacle for Israeli warplanes, but the Times notes also that Israeli officials worry that a Russian drawdown could actually allow Iran to strengthen its position in Syria.

In any case, the warming relationship between Russia and Iran — two nations increasingly isolated in the global arena and facing challenges from within (especially Iran) — does not look likely to abate anytime soon under their current regimes. And a former Israeli Knesset member and scholar, Ksenia Svetlova, thinks Israel needs to be ready.

“It is often assumed that Russia has no appetite to open another front against Israel in Syria due to its focus on the battlefield in Ukraine, and this red line has not been crossed by Moscow yet,” Svetlova wrote in August.  “However, the situation might change if Russian alignment with Iran and Syria keeps expanding. If and when that happens, Jerusalem must be ready with an adequate and strong response, and with the confidence that it has the United States to rely upon.”

How will you pray for Israel and its relations with Russia and Ukraine today?

Aaron Mercer is an IFA contributing writer with two decades of experience in the Washington, D.C., public-policy arena. Photo credit: Taylor Brandon on Unsplash.