Going into this year’s elections, Republicans have an identification advantage over Democrats. How will this affect the results?

From The Wall Street Journal. Beneath the headline results in many polls, something unusual has turned up with big implications for politics: More voters are calling themselves Republicans than Democrats, suggesting that the GOP has its first durable lead in party identification in more than three decades. …

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In combined NBC polls this year, Republicans lead by 2 percentage points over Democrats, 42% to 40%, when voters were asked which party they identified with. That compares with Democratic leads of 6 points in 2020, 7 points in 2016 and 9 points in 2012. …

Gallup also found more voters identifying as Republican than Democratic, by 3 points in its July-to-September surveys. It was the first time that the GOP had an advantage in the third quarter before a presidential election in Gallup surveys dating to 1992. …

The last time that presidential Election Day exit polls found Republicans on a level playing field with Democrats in party identification was in 2004, when the two were tied. That was also the only year in about three decades that Republicans won the national popular vote. …

Not all polls find the same tilt toward the GOP, and a lead in party affiliation isn’t a guarantee of success. In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans turned out more voters than Democrats did in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan, according to the AP VoteCast survey of the electorate. But independent voters favored Democrats so heavily that the party won the governor’s races in all three states, as well as Senate races in Pennsylvania and Arizona. Democrats also benefited from an erosion of support among Republican voters for many GOP candidates who aligned themselves closely with Trump.

More recently, NBC’s September poll found Republicans with a 1-point advantage on party identification, and yet Harris led Trump by 5 points. Her lead rested on an advantage among independent voters and that she was winning more than 20% support among Republicans who don’t consider themselves part of Trump’s “Make America Great Again’’ movement, a group that ultimately could shift back to Trump. …

Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster, said the GOP advantage in party identification lessens the pressure on Trump to win over independent or swing voters, “but it does not say that Trump is going to win’’ this year.

“It’s a loose indicator that you have a number of people who are disappointed in the Democratic Party’s performance,’’ Ruffini said. “It should be a good indicator for Trump. But as we saw in 2022, it doesn’t mean the candidates who are running are going to maximize their advantage.’’ …

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(Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal. Photo Credit: Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash)