For anything to have even a remote chance of changing when it comes to the outcome of the Electoral College, the current status of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia must change.

Pennsylvania is a bit of a mess at this point, but there are meaningful challenges to the vote totals still pending, the adverse decision in federal district court is being appealed (interestingly, only the denial of leave to amend is being appealed), and a new complaint relating to Philadelphia and the surrounding counties is being suggested as a possibility. . . .

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The campaign has asked for recounts in two Wisconsin counties — Dane and Milwaukee.  Both produced a large number of Biden votes — Dane County particularly.  I’m not sure exactly what the goal is in recounting those counties, but it seems as if Wisconsin law allows challenges to ballots to be made during the recount process.  The margin is only 20,000 votes out of 3.2 million cast, so it is not out of the question that if there was some nefarious practice engaged in, a recount might uncover a decent number of votes.  Wisconsin has same-day registration, so the emphasis might be to target suspicious registrations as potentially invalid votes in those two counties.

But in Georgia, the approach seems to be a normal election contest that will take place in Georgia state court, and the evidence may be coming into focus that gives the Campaign a legitimate chance to reverse the outcome.  The margin of Biden’s win in Georgia is only 12,500 votes, and the Trump campaign has requested a machine recount which they are entitled to under Georgia law given the narrow margin. . . .

2,011 absentee ballots were rejected in the November 2020 election for missing or non-matching signatures out of 1,322,529 absentee ballots cast. In November 2018, 454 absentee ballots were rejected for missing or non-matching signatures out of 284,393 absentee ballots cast. The 0.15% rejection rate for signature issues was the same in both the 2018 and 2020 General Elections.

In the 2020 Primary, 3,266 absentee ballot were rejected for missing or non-matching signatures out of 1,151,371 absentee ballots cast, a rejection rate of 0.28%. The lower rejection rate in the general election compared to the primary is likely the result of both parties attempting to help voters cure their absentee ballots pursuant to the process set forth in Georgia statute. . . .

Under Georgia Code § 21-2-522, the grounds for challenging the outcome of an election are as follows:

A result of a primary or election may be contested on one or more of the following grounds:

(1) Misconduct, fraud, or irregularity by any primary or election official or officials sufficient to change or place in doubt the result;

(2) When the defendant is ineligible for the nomination or office in dispute;

(3) When illegal votes have been received or legal votes rejected at the polls sufficient to change or place in doubt the result;

(4) For any error in counting the votes or declaring the result of the primary or election, if such error would change the result; or

(5) For any other cause which shows that another was the person legally nominated, elected, or eligible to compete in a run-off primary or election.

This is why the campaign is looking into the legitimacy of the recent registrations by Georgia voters who then cast absentee ballots.  If their registration was invalid, then they cast illegal votes. . . .

The speed with which this will proceed is why the Campaign needs to have all of its evidence together before filing the Petition, which I expect it will do on the last day.

The remedy provided by law is a bit uncertain.  Here is what the statute says:

(d) Whenever the court trying a contest shall determine that the primary, election, or runoff is so defective as to the nomination, office, or eligibility in contest as to place in doubt the result of the entire primary, election, or runoff for such nomination, office, or eligibility, such court shall declare the primary, election, or runoff to be invalid with regard to such nomination, office, or eligibility and shall call for a second primary, election, or runoff to be conducted among all of the same candidates who participated in the primary, election, or runoff to fill such nomination or office which was declared invalid and shall set the date for such second primary, election, or runoff.

The statute does not provide that the loser of the election who prevails in the election contest shall be declared the election winner.  Rather, the remedy is to void the election results.

(Excerpt from Red State. Article by Shipwreckedcrew. Photo Credit: Getty Images.)

What do you think about the chance that Trump could have to win back Georgia?