“For evangelicals, being conservative is what has held them to that same level as a share of the population,” said Ryan P. Burge, an assistant professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University who tracks the data.

Yet the future is uncertain as attendance plateaus. Evangelicals made up 22.5% of the U.S. population in 2018, and that share is expected to inch up to only 22.6% by 2030, according to Mr. Burge’s numbers, which are based on the General Social Survey, a trove of sociological data.

A 2016 study led by Wilfrid Laurier University professor David Millard Haskell found that the “recipe for church growth” was conservative theology coupled with worship music featuring drums and guitars, but he said he thinks the growth has hit a wall since then.

He also said cultural upheaval of gender issues and the battles it entails — such as same-sex wedding cakes, public accommodations and transgender athletes — is taking a toll.

“What’s going on in the culture with the greater acceptance of gay marriage will make it harder for churches promoting traditional views,” Mr. Haskell said.

But he added: “If a church stuck with their traditional views and were able to articulate it in a way that met the hearts and minds, the best research shows that keeping to those traditional values will cause your church to grow.”

Religious conservative leaders at the national level see the fight over gender issues as make-or-break.

“The current cultural attack is indeed about our right to live according to our faith and even about what it means to be a man or a woman,” said Mario Diaz, general counsel of Concerned Women for America. “That is why we are engaged there most prominently. When males are entering women’s private spaces and demanding to compete against them in sports, we must speak up.”. . .

‘You’re wanted and needed’

The days of denouncing same-sex marriage from the pulpit, as the Rev. Jerry Falwell did, are effectively over. Many conservative churches have moved away from hot-button political issues, said Peter Sprigg, a senior fellow at the conservative Family Research Council.

“There’s always been a stereotype by the left that somehow at evangelical churches, the pastors are getting up in the pulpit every Sunday and railing against gays and abortion and so forth, and I just don’t think it happens,” Mr. Sprigg said. “I think they would be surprised at how little attention these issues get — and maybe they need more, because the people in the congregations need to be educated to counter the messages that they’re getting from the culture.”

Clergy are increasingly cut from the cloth of pastors like Mr. Smith at Hope Church, who has reached out to gay parishioners.

He meets with them and lets them know that they are “not only welcome, but wanted and needed.” He refers same-sex couples who want to get married to local LGBTQ-affirming churches.

Still, they feel tension.

“We’ve conducted meetings with our people who are same-sex and even those who are same-sex-attracted but are celibate,” Mr. Smith said. “And to be fair, they say, ‘We appreciate your saying we’re welcome and wanted, but at the same time, we don’t really have all of the rights and privileges of everyone else.’”

They are right, he said. “I tell them, ‘We’re grappling with that. Your statement is true. However, we want you to help us as we grapple with this issue.’”

He also has asked gay worshippers why they attend Hope and not an LGBTQ-affirming church. One reason: His church is more vibrant.

“They say, ‘We don’t want to be that isolated,’” he said. “‘We like the Gospel, the environment, the way it’s preached and taught here, the relationships we have. And we don’t want to be in a church where it’s just one class of people.’”

(Excerpt from The Washington Times. Article by Valerie Richardson.)