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With 18 days until Election Day, Democrats are the clear favorites to take the House, thanks to President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings, a historic number of GOP open seats and record-shattering Democratic fundraising.

But it’s not a done deal yet.

Roughly a sixth of America will decide the House. As of Friday, the Cook Political Report rates 75 of 435 seats as vulnerable to a takeover, and it’s a lopsided list: 70 are held by Republicans, and only five are held by Democrats. Democrats only need a net gain of 23 seats to win the majority, so winning even two-fifths of these 75 seats would get them there….

Here’s a breakdown of what I estimate Democrats need in each of these nine categories to prevail on Nov. 6:

1. Vulnerable Democratic Open Seats

If Republicans are going to hold their majority, they’ll need to succeed on offense.

Most Democratic incumbents are in excellent shape, but the party holds five at-risk open seats. Of those, they’re sure to lose Pennsylvania’s 14th District, which Rep. Conor Lamb is leaving to run in a nearby seat after the state’s map was redrawn. The next two most vulnerable open seats are in rural Minnesota. Democrats probably need to hold two of five.

DISTRICT INCUMBENT RATING

MN-01  OPEN (Walz) (D)               Toss Up

MN-08  OPEN (Nolan) (D)             Lean Republican

NV-03   OPEN (Rosen) (D)            Lean Democratic

NV-04   OPEN (Kihuen) (D)          Lean Democratic

PA-14    OPEN (Lamb) (D)              Likely Republican

2. Republicans in Suburbs Won by Clinton in ’16

Democrats’ “blue wave” is most super-charged in elite, professional suburbs where Trump is woefully unpopular with college-educated voters, particularly women.

Ten GOP incumbents are at risk in Clinton-won districts, including areas such as Orange County, California, and the suburbs of Chicago, Dallas and Kansas City.

Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock in Northern Virginia is the most likely to lose. Democrats probably need to flip seven of 10.

DISTRICT INCUMBENT RATING

CA-45    Mimi Walters (R)              Toss Up

CA-48    Dana Rohrabacher (R)    Toss Up

CO-06    Mike Coffman (R)            Lean Democratic

IL-06      Peter Roskam (R)             Lean Democratic

KS-03     Kevin Yoder (R) Lean Democratic

MN-03  Erik Paulsen (R) Lean Democratic

NJ-07     Leonard Lance (R)            Toss Up

PA-01    Brian Fitzpatrick (R)         Toss Up

TX-32     Pete Sessions (R)             Toss Up

VA-10    Barbara Comstock (R)    Lean Democratic

3. GOP Open Seats Won by Clinton

It’s not just a “blue wave,” it’s a “red exodus”: There are 41 open or vacant Republican seats, the most since at least 1930. Of those, the most problematic for the GOP are the eight districts Clinton carried in 2016. History is working against the GOP: Since 1992, in situations when a president’s party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column.

Democrats are almost guaranteed to pick up Pennsylvania’s 5th and 6th Districts after the state’s Supreme Court redrew them in February to be much more heavily Democratic. One of Republicans’ better opportunities to hang on to one of these seats is in Florida’s 27th District, a 76 percent Hispanic district where Democrats nominated former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala, who doesn’t speak Spanish. Democrats probably need to flip six of eight.

DISTRICT INCUMBENT RATING

AZ-02    OPEN (McSally) (R)          Lean Democratic

CA-39    OPEN (Royce) (R)             Toss Up

CA-49    OPEN (Issa) (R) Lean Democratic

FL-27     OPEN (Ros-Lehtinen) (R)              Toss Up

PA-05    VACANT (Meehan) (R)  Likely Democratic

PA-06    OPEN (Costello) (R)         Likely Democratic

PA-07    VACANT (Dent) (R)         Lean Democratic

WA-08  OPEN (Reichert) (R)        Toss Up

4. GOP Open Seats Won by Trump

There are 11 more highly vulnerable Republican open seats that Trump carried, ranging from a seat he won by a point (New Jersey’s 11th District) to one he carried by 50 points (West Virginia’s 3rd District). They include Speaker Paul Ryan’s open seat in Wisconsin, and two districts where Republican incumbents lost primaries: Reps. Robert Pittenger’s seat in North Carolina and Mark Sanford’s seat in South Carolina.

Democrats are virtually guaranteed to pick up New Jersey’s 2nd District, where popular moderate Rep. Frank LoBiondo is retiring and national Republicans withdrew support for their nominee upon learning of his comments critical of racial diversity. They’re also well-positioned to pick up New Jersey’s 11th District, where Appropriations Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen chose not to seek re-election. Democrats probably need to flip four of 11.

DISTRICT INCUMBENT RATING

FL-15     OPEN (Ross) (R)                Lean Republican

KS-02     OPEN (Jenkins) (R)          Toss Up

MI-11    OPEN (Trott) (R)               Lean Democratic

NC-09    OPEN (Pittenger) (R)      Toss Up

NJ-02     OPEN (LoBiondo) (R)      Likely Democratic

NJ-11     OPEN (Frelinghuysen) (R)            Lean Democratic

NM-02  OPEN (Pearce) (R)           Toss Up

SC-01     OPEN (Sanford) (R)         Lean Republican

VA-05    OPEN (Garrett) (R)          Lean Republican

WI-01    OPEN (Ryan) (R)               Lean Republican

WV-03  OPEN (Jenkins) (R)          Lean Republican

5. Republicans in Bellwether Suburbs

Ten vulnerable GOP incumbents represent suburban districts Trump carried by a single digit margin in 2016, and most represent a mix of professional and middle-class voters.

Several, like Georgia’s 6th District, Illinois’ 14th District, Michigan’s 8th District and Ohio’s 1st District, were gerrymandered to protect Republicans, but political trends have caused the GOP’s advantage to unravel. Democrats probably need to flip three of 10.

DISTRICT INCUMBENT RATING

GA-06   Karen Handel (R)              Lean Republican

IL-14      Randy Hultgren (R)          Toss Up

MI-08    Mike Bishop (R)                Toss Up

MN-02  Jason Lewis (R) Lean Democratic

MO-02  Ann Wagner (R)                Lean Republican

NE-02    Don Bacon (R)   Lean Republican

NJ-03     Tom MacArthur (R)         Toss Up

OH-01   Steve Chabot (R)              Toss Up

PA-17    Keith Rothfus (R)             Likely Democratic

UT-04    Mia Love (R)       Toss Up

6. Republicans in Non-White Districts

Another six Republicans represent districts where majorities of their constituents are non-white.

All but Georgia’s 7th District voted for Clinton in 2016. Democrats’ challenge is that some of these incumbents are personally popular and Latino turnout typically plummets in midterms. Rep. Will Hurd in Texas’s 23rd District is probably in the best shape, in part thanks to his vocal criticism of Trump on immigration. Democrats probably need to flip two of six.

DISTRICT INCUMBENT RATING

CA-10    Jeff Denham (R)               Toss Up

CA-25    Steve Knight (R)               Toss Up

FL-26     Carlos Curbelo (R)            Toss Up

GA-07   Rob Woodall (R)               Lean Republican

TX-07     John Culberson (R)          Toss Up

TX-23     Will Hurd (R)       Lean Republican

7. Republicans in “Trump Surge Zones”

Six vulnerable Republicans represent heavily white, working-class districts that previously voted for Barack Obama but swung hard to Trump in 2016. Rep. Rod Blum in northeastern Iowa is the most vulnerable, but Rep. Mike Bost in Illinois and Rep. Bruce Poliquin in Maine are also in serious jeopardy. These are places where the Kavanaugh fight may have boosted the GOP, especially in upstate New York. Democrats probably need to flip two of six.

DISTRICT INCUMBENT RATING

IA-01     Rod Blum (R)      Lean Democratic

IL-12      Mike Bost (R)     Toss Up

ME-02   Bruce Poliquin (R)            Toss Up

NY-11    Dan Donovan (R)              Lean Republican

NY-19    John Faso (R)     Toss Up

PA-16    Mike Kelly (R)    Lean Republican

8. Republicans in Districts With Urban/Rural Divides

Democrats have pickup chances in 12 districts that combine mid-size cities and large rural components.

In a big blue wave, the risk for Republicans is that energized Democrats in cities like Des Moines, Iowa; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Spokane, Washington turn out at sky-high numbers while voters in red, rural surrounding areas stay home. Reps. David Young in Iowa and Andy Barr in Kentucky are at the greatest risk. Democrats probably need to flip one of 12.

DISTRICT INCUMBENT RATING

AR-02    French Hill (R)    Lean Republican

IA-03     David Young (R)                Toss Up

IL-13      Rodney Davis (R)              Lean Republican

KY-06     Andy Barr (R)     Toss Up

NC-02    George Holding (R)         Lean Republican

NC-13    Ted Budd (R)      Toss Up

NY-24    John Katko (R)   Lean Republican

OH-12   Troy Balderson (R)           Toss Up

PA-10    Scott Perry (R)   Lean Republican

TX-31     John Carter (R)  Lean Republican

WA-03  Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)             Lean Republican

WA-05  Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)       Lean Republican

9. Republicans With Self-Inflicted Wounds

Finally, there are seven Republicans who have no one to blame but themselves for their political woes in Trump-won districts.

They include indicted Reps. Duncan Hunter of California and Chris Collins of New York, whose ruby-red seats wouldn’t otherwise be in play. Still, in this polarized political era, Democrats would likely need a tsunami to beat them.

This list also includes Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan, who finalized the purchase of a $3 million yacht on the day Republicans passed their tax package, and Virginia Rep. Dave Brat, who this week told a group of jailed drug addicts: “You think you’re having a hard time — I got $5 million worth of negative ads going at me.” Democrats probably need to flip one of seven. (Excerpts from David Wasserman article on Cook Political Report)

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