On election night last year, the Commonwealth of Virginia was unexpectedly close early in the evening. But as the map of the state filled in, it became obvious that the large swaths of rural precincts had reported their results first and Democratic party stronghold Fairfax County, a suburb of Washington, was late with its tallies. In the end, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by more than a margin of 69.9% in Fairfax County to Trump’s 28%. Statewide, Biden won the Old Dominion by more than 10 points. Virgina was now officially blue.

Until it wasn’t.

FiveThirtyEight has Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe ahead by only 1.5% in the polls over Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin, and Youngkin has been closing the gap since August. Then, with COVID the principal concern, McAuliffe held a healthy lead in the polls, but COVID is like the economy: When it is bad, it is the only issue, but once the number of new cases dropped, other issues surged to the fore. And, on the issue of education, Youngkin struck gold…. (Excerpts from the National Catholic Reporter)

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